Disbursement Gap Widens Despite FG World Bank Loans $11.4bn Approval
Nigeria’s borrowing relationship with the World Bank has entered a new and more intense phase under President Bola Tinubu, with the administration securing $11.40bn in loan approvals in just under three years — a pace that now places it on course to surpass the total financing approved throughout former President Muhammadu Buhari’s entire eight-year tenure.
An analysis of World Bank data shows that the multilateral lender approved loans worth $11.40bn for Nigeria between June 2023 and June 2026, compared with $14.59bn approved during Buhari’s presidency, which ran from May 2015 to May 2023. That means Tinubu’s administration has already secured about 78.2 per cent of the total World Bank financing approved across Buhari’s two terms in office, and needs just $3.19bn more in approvals to exceed that eight-year record.
The scale of the shift becomes even sharper when measured against Buhari’s first term alone. World Bank loans approved under Tinubu have already surpassed those recorded under Buhari’s first term by more than $5.8bn. Projects approved during that first term amounted to about $5.56bn, meaning Tinubu’s current approvals exceed the first-term total by roughly 105 per cent.
Yet approval is not the same as delivery. Of the $11.4bn approved under Tinubu, only $2.32bn had actually been disbursed as of the latest World Bank update, leaving $8.41bn still sitting unused and available for disbursement. That works out to a disbursement rate of about 20.3 per cent — a figure that stands in stark contrast to the implementation record under the previous administration.
By comparison, projects approved during Buhari’s administration have recorded far higher implementation levels. Of the $14.59bn approved during his presidency, $11.94bn had been disbursed, while just $1.53bn remained available. That translates to a disbursement rate of about 81.8 per cent, reflecting the fact that many of those projects have either been completed, moved into repayment, or are approaching completion.
The World Bank portfolio assembled under Tinubu has been concentrated largely in economic reforms, education, healthcare, agriculture, energy, digital infrastructure, financial inclusion and social protection — a sweeping spread that touches nearly every corner of the Nigerian economy.
The single largest approval under the administration came in June 2024, when the World Bank approved a $2.25bn financing package comprising the $1.5bn Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing and the $750m Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms Programme-for-Results.
According to the World Bank, the financing was designed to support Nigeria’s economic reform programme, strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve domestic revenue mobilisation and protect poor and vulnerable households during the implementation of reforms. The bank said the package was intended to support the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms, including exchange rate reforms, fiscal consolidation, and measures aimed at strengthening public finances.
World Bank data shows that the RESET programme has been fully disbursed, while the ARMOR programme had recorded disbursements of $280.55m, leaving $469.45m still available. The reform package attracted considerable public attention because it coincided with the implementation of major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market — both of which contributed to sharp increases in inflation and the cost of living.
The World Bank has consistently maintained that the reforms are necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and place public finances on a more sustainable path, although several labour unions, civil society groups and opposition politicians have criticised the pace of the reforms and their impact on households.
Another major addition to Tinubu’s World Bank portfolio came on June 29, 2026, when the bank approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme. The programme consists of two facilities worth $500m and $750m respectively, bringing total financing under the initiative to $1.25bn.
Announcing the approval, the World Bank said the financing formed part of its new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. According to the bank, the framework aims to support private sector-led growth, improve job creation, expand energy access, strengthen digital infrastructure, and improve agricultural productivity.
Agriculture also accounts for a significant share of the approvals secured under Tinubu. In March 2026, the World Bank approved a $500m credit for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth project. The bank said the project is expected to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen value chains, increase market access for smallholder farmers and create employment opportunities across participating states. The facility had yet to record any disbursement, according to World Bank data.
In December 2024, the bank also approved three separate credits worth $357m, $57m and $86m for the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project Scale-Up, bringing total financing under the programme to $500m. Those facilities were still awaiting disbursement as of the latest update.
The power sector has remained one of the largest recipients of World Bank financing under Tinubu, reflecting the administration’s determination to tackle Nigeria’s chronic electricity challenges. In June 2023, shortly after the inauguration of the administration, the World Bank approved $750m for the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation through separate facilities of $301m and $449m. World Bank data shows that the facilities had disbursed $28.10m and $41.24m, respectively.
In December 2023, the bank approved another $750m for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project. The project comprises three facilities worth $350m, $250m, and $150m. The World Bank said the programme is expected to provide new or improved electricity access to about 17.5 million Nigerians through distributed renewable energy solutions. The data shows that only the $350m facility had recorded disbursement, amounting to $97.71m, while the remaining two facilities had yet to record any drawdown.
In September 2024, the World Bank approved another $500m for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project. According to the World Bank, the project is designed to improve dam safety, strengthen irrigation infrastructure, and increase hydropower generation in selected locations across the country. World Bank data shows that $33m had been disbursed under the project, leaving $467m available.
Nigeria’s power sector has remained one of the most heavily financed sectors by the World Bank over the past decade, yet implementation challenges have also persisted. It was previously reported that the Federal Government and the World Bank agreed to cancel about $717m in undisbursed financing under the Power Sector Recovery Operation, following changes in implementation arrangements and unmet programme conditions, including reforms linked to electricity tariffs and sector financing.
Education and healthcare also account for a substantial portion of Tinubu’s World Bank borrowing. In September 2023, the World Bank approved the $700m Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment project. The project had recorded a disbursement of $148.35m, while $558.22m remained available. The Nigeria for Women Programme Scale-Up Project, approved in June 2023, received $500m, with $109.62m disbursed and $393.67m still remaining, according to World Bank data.
The World Bank expanded its support for Nigeria’s human capital development further in September 2024 with the approval of three major projects valued at $1.5bn combined. These comprised the $500m Nigeria Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity Governance programme, the $500m Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme, and the $500m Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project. According to the World Bank, the HOPE programmes are expected to improve access to quality basic education and primary healthcare services while strengthening governance and accountability in the delivery of public services.
An analysis of the World Bank data shows that implementation of these projects remains at an early stage. The HOPE Governance project had recorded disbursement of just $3m out of the approved $500m, leaving $497m available. The Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme had disbursed $75.35m, while $424.65m remained available. The Sustainable Power and Irrigation Project had drawn $33m, leaving $467m yet to be disbursed. Combined, the three projects had received disbursements of $111.35m, representing about 7.4 per cent of the approved financing.
The World Bank also approved another package of projects in March 2025 covering education, community resilience and nutrition. The package included the $500m HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All project, the $500m Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme, and the $80m Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 project. The financing was intended to improve education quality, support vulnerable households, and address malnutrition among women and children. World Bank data shows that none of the projects had recorded any disbursement as of the latest update.
Financial inclusion and digital infrastructure also featured prominently in the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio. In December 2025, the World Bank approved the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria project, comprising a $400m International Bank for Reconstruction and Development facility and a $100m International Development Association credit. The bank said the project is expected to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium enterprises, strengthen financial institutions and mobilise private capital. Neither component had recorded any disbursement.
In October 2025, the World Bank approved the $500m Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth project to improve broadband connectivity and digital infrastructure across Nigeria. The bank said the project would help increase broadband penetration, improve digital public infrastructure and support digital inclusion. The project remained at the effective stage with no disbursement recorded.
The World Bank also approved $250m for the Health Security Programme in Western and Central Africa, Nigeria Phase II, in September 2025, to strengthen disease surveillance and emergency preparedness following lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. The facility was listed as signed and had yet to record any disbursement.
A sectoral analysis of the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio shows that economic reforms, power, agriculture, education, healthcare and social protection account for the bulk of the financing approved since June 2023. By comparison, Buhari’s World Bank borrowing was spread across fiscal reforms, electricity, agriculture, social investment, education, health, erosion control, mining, water resources, livestock development, business reforms, and COVID-19 response.
An analysis of annual approval trends shows that Tinubu’s administration has averaged about $3.7bn in World Bank approvals per year since assuming office in May 2023. By comparison, Buhari’s administration averaged about $1.82bn annually over eight years — meaning approvals have more than doubled in pace, even as implementation lags behind.
The rapid pace of approvals has coincided with a marked rise in Nigeria’s overall debt exposure to the institution. Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose by $2.08bn in one year to $19.89bn as of December 31, 2025, according to an analysis of external debt stock data released by the Debt Management Office. The figure represents an 11.7 per cent increase from the $17.81bn owed to the global lender as of December 31, 2024.
The World Bank debt comprises loans from the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The IDA provides concessional grants and loans to low-income countries, while the IBRD provides financial products and policy advice mainly to middle-income and creditworthy developing countries. DMO data shows that Nigeria’s IDA debt rose from $16.56bn in 2024 to $18.51bn in 2025, an increase of $1.94bn or 11.73 per cent. IBRD exposure also increased from $1.24bn to $1.38bn, representing a rise of $141.84m or 11.41 per cent. The increase means World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86bn as of the end of 2025.
Reacting to the rising World Bank commitments, Lagos-based economist Adewale Abimbola said loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are largely concessionary, with interest rates typically below market levels and longer repayment tenors. He noted that the critical question is not whether Nigeria should be borrowing, but whether the loans are structured and deployed effectively.
“If it’s concessionary and tied to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects, I don’t think it’s a bad idea,” Abimbola explained. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation.” He stressed that the economic impact of such loans depends on how well they are channelled into projects that can generate sustainable growth, strengthen revenue, and improve public services over time.
Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, expressed strong reservations about Nigeria’s rising debt profile in light of the World Bank’s fresh commitments. While acknowledging that borrowing is not inherently bad for an economy, he questioned the rationale for taking on more debt at a time when the government claims to have higher revenues. According to him, the impact of the current borrowing spree is being felt in reduced public service delivery, particularly in capital expenditure, as debt servicing now consumes a significant portion of available revenue.
He warned that this crowding-out effect limits job creation, fuels inflation, and worsens Nigeria’s foreign-exchange imbalance, with the naira trading at historically low levels. He argued that given the claimed revenue surpluses, the Tinubu administration should not have needed to borrow within its first two years in office, let alone at the scale currently being witnessed.
Economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said that borrowing should always be backed by sound economic reasoning and clear development priorities. Yusuf emphasised that the key issue is debt sustainability, which depends primarily on the country’s revenue capacity to service its obligations. Without strong cash flow to meet repayment schedules, he warned, Nigeria risks falling into a vicious cycle of borrowing to service existing loans, thereby perpetuating fiscal vulnerability.
He said it is essential that projects funded by loans directly support the economy’s capacity to repay. According to him, Nigeria should be cautious with foreign loans due to the exchange rate risks they pose, noting that domestic debt is generally easier to manage. He stressed that a disciplined approach to debt sustainability will be crucial for Nigeria to avoid long-term fiscal distress.
Responding to an enquiry on the delay in loan disbursements, the Senior External Affairs Officer at the World Bank, Mansir Nasir, explained that funds for projects financed by the institution are not disbursed all at once but in instalments, depending on the nature of the project and financing instruments. “Projects financed by the World Bank run for a certain time, which varies depending on the specific project.
The total amount of the project is not disbursed as a one-off, but rather in instalments depending on the financing instruments—e.g., IPF or PforR—which require certain milestones for specific disbursement values. If you look at the portal, you will see the specific disbursement timelines and values,” Nasir said. He further stated that before a new project can begin disbursement, it must meet certain agreed conditions between the Federal Government and the World Bank.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, recently faulted Nigerians, especially analysts and commentators, for criticising government borrowing without considering the purpose, cost and expected returns of such debt. “When analysts go on TV and join the populist view to accuse the government of borrowing, you are doing a disservice. The relevant question is never simply how much debt. It is always debt for what and at what cost, against what return, and repaid on what terms. A nation, a state, or a business that borrows to finance a productive asset generating returns above the cost of that capital is not behaving recklessly; it is behaving rationally,” Oyedele said.
Taken together, the figures paint a picture of an administration that has dramatically accelerated its engagement with the World Bank, nearly doubling the annual pace of approvals recorded under its predecessor while still lagging significantly behind on actual disbursement and implementation. With Nigeria’s overall World Bank debt now approaching $20bn and accounting for well over a third of total external debt, the coming years are likely to test whether the ambitious pipeline of reform, power, agriculture, education, health and digital infrastructure projects can be converted into disbursed funds and tangible outcomes — or whether the gap between approval and delivery continues to widen even as the country’s exposure to multilateral debt keeps climbing.
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