World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has said 72 percent of global goods trade is still conducted under WTO rules, despite mounting disruptions to the world economy.
The disruptions include the Donald Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies, US-China tensions and the impact of the Iran war on energy markets.
She spoke to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria at the weekend. She said the resilience of the multilateral trading system had surprised even WTO officials, as businesses continue to rely on the stability and predictability of its rules despite rising protectionism and geopolitical tension.
“We are very truthful and say that even we are surprised by the resilience and grateful for it,” she said.
“We find that 72 per cent of world trade, world goods trade, is still taking place on WTO terms, on most favoured nation terms. That’s what we call predictable, stable,” she said.
Worst disruption in 80 years
Okonjo-Iweala described the current situation as the worst disruption to global trade in 80 years, with the United States, historically one of the strongest backers and beneficiaries of the system, turning increasingly to protectionism.
She said businesses are helping to sustain the system because they need stability and predictability to make investment and trading decisions.
Trade growth beats forecasts
The WTO had projected global goods trade growth of about 2.4 to 2.5 percent last year, but actual growth came in at 4.6 percent. She said much of the expansion was driven by rapid growth in artificial intelligence-related goods, including semiconductors and processors.
“Forty-two per cent of that growth last year was contributed by trading AI, semiconductors, processors, all the things,” she said.
For 2026, the WTO initially projected goods trade growth of 1.9 percent amid tariff disruptions, geopolitical tensions, energy price pressures and bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz. First-quarter figures showed growth of 3.2 percent, again above expectations.
Bubble risk and uneven gains
She cautioned that the strong performance does not mean the system is immune to current shocks. She said AI-related trade is highly concentrated in East Asia and North America, particularly the United States.
“We don’t know whether this can be sustained or it’s a bit of a bubble. So we have to watch out for that,” she said. She warned that the concentration of benefits could become a problem if other regions are excluded from the AI-driven expansion.
Resilient, but not robust
She said the persistence of trade under WTO rules has strengthened her belief that the system retains a strong core.
“I used to think that with what is going on, the worst disruption for global trade in 80 years, that we wouldn’t see these kinds of numbers, I’ll be honest with you. But now I’m seeing some persistence in those numbers that lead me to believe that there’s a core of the rules that really work, that it was largely well built, has benefited the world, you know, made prosperity, 1.5 billion people taken out of poverty as a result of this,” she said.
She drew a distinction between resilience and robustness. “It doesn’t mean that the system, it’s resilient, but is it robust? And I don’t think it is,” she said.
Optimism on reform
The former Nigerian finance minister said she remains fundamentally optimistic about the future of free trade, though the global system will not return to its previous form. She said member countries have recognised that reform is necessary for the WTO to stay relevant.
“For whatever reason, they’ve come to accept that if we are going to be a modern organisation and maintain that resilience and robustness we talked about, they have to reform. So I’m optimistic,” she said.
Digital and green trade
She highlighted the rapid expansion of digital trade and digitally delivered services as important areas of opportunity. She also said green trade has now exceeded $2 trillion.
She said the future of global trade will be defined not only by the movement of physical goods, but increasingly by services, digital commerce, technology and green products.
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