Nigeria’s exports to African countries rose 122.26 per cent year-on-year to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, but economists and trade experts warn that the sharp increase in naira terms may partly reflect currency depreciation rather than a comparable expansion in real export earnings.
The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, worth about N10.15tn.
That compares with a 90.24 per cent share worth N4.35tn in the corresponding period of 2025.
The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, outpacing the 122.26 per cent growth in total exports to Africa.
The figures indicate that the increase in Nigeria’s trade with the continent was driven largely by petroleum products rather than the non-oil exports that the Federal Government has sought to expand.
By contrast, identifiable non-oil products, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, declined in value from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026.
That represents a 4.15 per cent decline, even as total exports to Africa more than doubled. The products’ share of total exports to the continent also fell from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent.
The oil-versus-non-oil estimates are based on the top 14 to 15 product lines disclosed in the NBS quarterly top-traded-products data for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 and 2026, as the agency does not separately publish a complete per-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.
Naira Effect
Nigeria’s exports to Africa stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020 before falling to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022.
Exports subsequently recovered to N1.31tn in H1 2023 before jumping to N4.21tn in H1 2024, representing a 221.32 per cent increase.
The figure rose more moderately to N4.82tn in H1 2025 before nearly tripling to N10.72tn in H1 2026.
Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, cautioned against interpreting the naira-denominated figures as evidence of an equivalent increase in real trade.
He described the pattern as a “naira illusion” linked to the depreciation of the currency.
Naira illusion refers to the appearance of rapid growth in trade values caused largely by currency depreciation and inflation rather than an equivalent increase in the dollar value of goods traded.
“If you got $10 last year and you devalue it, you still got $10. When you go to naira, you say I got N10 last year, and I got N100 this year because the exchange rate has gone to 10 to 1. Only a fool will be happy about that, because nothing has changed,” Teriba said.
He said the depreciation of the naira was not deliberately engineered to inflate revenue figures, noting that Nigeria had depleted its reserves and could no longer meet foreign exchange demand at the previous official rate before the currency was floated.
“It creates the illusion of increased price. Nobody is denying that. But we are saying it is an illusion,” he said.
Teriba argued that a stronger naira would better serve Nigeria’s interests by helping to contain inflation, while calling for intra-African trade to be measured more clearly in dollar terms.
He also said the Dangote refinery had contributed to the increase in Nigeria’s exports to Africa.
“Dangote Refinery came on stream right around 2024, and it tracks with the increased exports. Stripping away what proceeds from Dangote Refinery will give us a clearer look,” he said.
Refinery Drives Export Growth
Chief Executive Officer of Alpine Supply Chain Solutions and trade and supply chain expert, Marcel Mba, similarly attributed much of the increase to petroleum products and petrochemicals from the Dangote refinery.
“What I see as contributing to a significant increase in Nigeria’s export to African countries would obviously be refined petroleum products and petrochemicals from Dangote Refinery,” Mba said.
He cautioned against attributing a significant portion of the more than 100 per cent increase to non-oil exports.
“Saying that a reasonable part of the over 100 per cent increase can be attributed to non-oil export to other African countries is unrealistic, if not outrightly misleading,” he said.
Mba identified cement, alcoholic bitters and other drinks, vehicles from Innoson Motors and floor tiles as non-oil products that could be contributing modestly to export growth, particularly as domestic production expands and manufacturers seek markets across West Africa.
He also called for more detailed trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Nigerian Customs Service.
“The NBS and the Nigerian Customs Service can make life easier for researchers and businesses by making detailed, accurate and verifiable information available on per-product-category exports by countries,” Mba said.
He urged both agencies to provide a product-by-product breakdown of the N10.72tn export figure.
Manufacturing Remains Weak
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group also raised concerns about Nigeria’s limited manufacturing content despite rising trade volumes.
“The share of manufactured goods in Nigeria’s total exports increased steadily to 4.3 per cent in Q3 2025 before falling sharply to 1.4 per cent in Q1 2026,” the NESG stated.
Manufactured goods accounted for just 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in Q3 2025, according to the think tank.
The NESG said Nigeria would struggle to fully harness the opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area without accelerating the development of a competitive manufacturing sector.
It called for reduced dependence on crude oil exports and greater domestic value addition, echoing longstanding calls from manufacturers.
Commenting on Nigeria’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product figures, the Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the country’s industrial base remained weak and its output was becoming less competitive globally.
“The drop in manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 9.57 per cent to 7.72 per cent in a single quarter highlights severe cost pressure, a high exchange rate, outrageous interest rates and exorbitant electricity tariffs facing domestic manufacturers,” Ajayi-Kadir said.
Although manufacturing expanded by 3.24 per cent year-on-year, he said “its declining relative share indicates that industrial expansion is lagging behind broader economic activity.”
Ajayi-Kadir also warned that continued weakness in manufacturing could accelerate the erosion of industrial capacity and technological obsolescence.
“Suffocating under exorbitant energy tariffs and prohibitive borrowing costs, manufacturers, particularly small and medium industries, are operating far below installed capacity. Instead of expanding production lines or acquiring modern technology, most factories are fighting to keep the lights on, leaving Nigerian industries less competitive globally,” he said.
Togo Leads Q2 Export Destinations
A country and commodity breakdown for Q2 2026 showed that Nigeria’s exports to Africa reached N6.65tn during the quarter.
Togo led with N1.50tn, followed by South Africa with N1.34tn, Ivory Coast with N1.22tn, Ghana with N461.36bn and Egypt with N455.81bn.
The five countries accounted for 74.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the quarter.
Crude petroleum oils alone accounted for 48.58 per cent of exports, valued at N3.23tn.
Gas oil followed at N1.32tn, while kerosene-type jet fuel stood at N975.37bn and ordinary motor spirit at N416.78bn.
The top five products jointly accounted for 91.60 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in Q2 2026, underscoring the continued dominance of petroleum-related products in the country’s intra-African trade.
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