Nigeria’s expenditure on petrol imports fell sharply in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting a significant transformation in the country’s fuel supply chain as domestic refining capacity continues to expand.
According to the latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, the country spent N87.401bn on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary—the official trade classification for Premium Motor Spirit (petrol)—between January and March 2026.
The figure represents a decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, from the N2.271tn recorded during the same period in 2025.
The development marks a major shift for a commodity that had long ranked among Nigeria’s most heavily imported products. Notably, petrol did not appear among the country’s leading traded commodities in the first quarter of 2026.
A review of the NBS data showed that petrol was absent from the top 19 products traded with global markets, African countries, and the West African sub-region during the quarter. Instead, major traded items included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for data reception and transmission, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides, and fuel additives.
The NBS report stated:
“The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).
“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.
“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”
Trade records indicate that the first-quarter 2026 figure is the lowest amount spent on petrol imports in a single quarter since at least 2022.
Historical data shows Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. That figure fell by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.
Petrol import spending then surged in 2024, rising by N1.780tn to N3.813tn, representing an annual increase of 87.6 per cent. The import bill later declined by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.
In practical terms, the latest figures suggest that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026.
The NBS data also revealed significant changes in the overall trade profile of the petroleum product.
Total trade value involving petrol stood at N7.705tn in 2022 before easing slightly by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.
The value more than doubled in 2024, increasing by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn—the highest level within the period under review. It later declined by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting evolving dynamics within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
The dramatic reduction in petrol imports underscores the growing role of local refining facilities in meeting domestic demand, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.
Despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria depended heavily on imported petrol for decades due to persistent challenges within state-owned refineries and limited domestic refining capacity.
That trend began to reverse following major investments in local refining infrastructure and the gradual increase in output from domestic facilities.
A key driver of the shift has been the expansion of domestic fuel production, particularly following the commencement of petrol supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in 2024.
For years, the country’s state-owned refineries operated significantly below capacity, compelling marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to satisfy local demand.
The commissioning of the 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a watershed moment for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry. Since beginning petrol production, the refinery has steadily expanded output, supplying marketers, industrial users, and fuel distributors nationwide.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that in January, the refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of national supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the same period.
The trend accelerated in February as imports declined sharply. The refinery supplied approximately 36.5 million litres daily, while imports dropped to about 3.1 million litres per day, resulting in locally refined fuel accounting for more than 92 per cent of total national supply.
According to the NMDPRA’s March fact sheet, Dangote remained the country’s sole domestic supplier of petrol, delivering 34.2 million litres daily. Fuel imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres per day, bringing total supply to roughly 40.1 million litres daily.
Supply strengthened further in April. The refinery supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports fell to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply reached 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery an estimated market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and between 80 and 92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the measurement approach.
The disappearance of petrol from Nigeria’s list of leading imported commodities is expected to reinforce the view that local refining is reshaping the country’s trade structure, reducing import dependence and altering foreign exchange requirements.
Analysts say sustained declines in fuel imports could strengthen Nigeria’s trade balance, ease pressure on the naira and retain greater economic value within the country, provided domestic production continues to meet demand.
The first-quarter 2026 figures therefore offer one of the strongest indications yet of a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.
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